Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 15:41	LAX 17:18	14%	4%	0.5%	87%
AA 6482 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 07:10	LAX 08:52	14%	4%	0.5%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5969 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	7h 44m	98%	86%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	1h 32m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 00m	96%	84%
United Details →	XNA 09:00 → IAH 11:00UA 5803 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Houston	IAH 14:54 → LAX 16:27UA 1951	9h 27m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3905 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 12m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	XNA 11:50 → MSP 13:48DL 3536 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → LAX 17:35DL 2114	7h 45m	97%	83%
United Details →	XNA 08:50 → DEN 10:01UA 1045	3h 25m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	8h 07m	98%	83%
United Details →	XNA 07:20 → ORD 09:30UA 5853 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363	10h 14m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 38m	96%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 +1DL 575	8h 31m	74%	54%
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 18:10 → LAX 20:40UA 1967	7h 44m	72%	51%
United Details →	XNA 18:37 → ORD 20:40UA 5639 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661	7h 32m	57%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON