Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4695 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4695 XNA 06:00 → LGA 10:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 4524 XNA 16:40 → LGA 20:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4695 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 06:00	LGA 10:06	10%	3%	0.8%	84%
AA 4620 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 09:57	LGA 14:03	14%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 4524 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 16:40	LGA 20:48	33%	14%	1.0%	71%
DL 5482 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 11:12	LGA 15:14	21%	9%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON