tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4052 at 06:00, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4052 American flown by Envoy Flight history → XNA 06:00 MIA 09:47 15% 4% 1.3% 95%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3905 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 02m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa 3h 39m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 8h 17m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:08 → PHL 09:59AA 1015 1h 31m Philadelphia PHL 11:30 → MIA 14:29AA 3302 7h 21m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912 5h 47m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → XNA 13:01 → PHL 16:50AA 5543 · flown by PSA 3h 05m Philadelphia PHL 19:55 → MIA 23:09AA 1181 9h 08m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → XNA 15:25 → ATL 18:21DL 4442 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 7h 14m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → XNA 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5969 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Denver DEN 10:09 → MIA 16:16UA 1496 9h 26m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:00 → DCA 10:39AA 3824 · flown by Envoy 3h 05m Washington DCA 13:44 → MIA 16:29AA 2915 8h 29m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → MIA 13:29AA 2762 5h 16m 72% 50%
AmericanDetails → XNA 17:47 → DFW 19:15AA 1804 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → MIA 23:56AA 2823 5h 09m 71% 47%
UnitedDetails → XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet 1h 06m Chicago ORD 18:05 → MIA 22:27UA 2180 6h 31m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON