Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3536 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 11:50	MSP 13:48	10%	5%	0.5%	89%
DL 4012 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:11	MSP 19:09	15%	6%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5969 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Denver	DEN 09:35 → MSP 12:34UA 397	6h 44m	98%	89%
American Details →	XNA 09:14 → ORD 11:11AA 3839 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Chicago	ORD 13:40 → MSP 15:29AA 4727 · flown by Republic	6h 15m	99%	85%
United Details →	XNA 08:50 → DEN 10:01UA 1045	3h 41m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	7h 56m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:45 → SLC 09:43DL 3796 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 55m	94%	84%
United Details →	XNA 07:20 → ORD 09:30UA 5853 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MSP 14:20UA 2749	7h 00m	100%	83%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	3h 57m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	8h 22m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3905 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 50m	96%	82%
American Details →	XNA 07:14 → ORD 09:20AA 3948 · flown by Envoy	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy	6h 18m	94%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 18:57 → DFW 20:29AA 3274	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	5h 00m	75%	54%
American Details →	XNA 17:47 → DFW 19:15AA 1804	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → MSP 22:26AA 2978	4h 39m	71%	49%
United Details →	XNA 18:37 → ORD 20:40UA 5639 · flown by SkyWest	48m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	4h 33m	52%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON