Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4088 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4088 XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5639 XNA 18:37 → ORD 20:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4088 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:06	ORD 07:12	12%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 3839 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 09:14	ORD 11:11	16%	5%	0.8%	83%
UA 5853 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 07:20	ORD 09:30	17%	6%	1.1%	93%
AA 3948 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:14	ORD 09:20	18%	5%	0.8%	84%
UA 5470 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 11:14	ORD 13:15	19%	8%	1.2%	70%
AA 3848 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:11	ORD 16:12	21%	7%	0.8%	67%
AA 3846 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 19:57	ORD 21:59	22%	7%	1.0%	70%
UA 5639 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 18:37	ORD 20:40	26%	10%	1.4%	70%
UA 4564 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 14:56	ORD 16:59	31%	11%	6.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON