Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1015 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1015 American Flight history →	XNA 06:08	PHL 09:59	10%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 13:01	PHL 16:50	20%	6%	0.9%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5969 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	8h 22m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3905 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 24m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:45 → SLC 09:43DL 3796 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	8h 54m	94%	81%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → PHL 13:02AA 2128	7h 02m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 44m	97%	78%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 08:29 → PHL 11:41AA 471	5h 35m	90%	77%
United Details →	XNA 07:20 → ORD 09:30UA 5853 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 27m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169	6h 33m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 18:37 → ORD 20:40UA 5639 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	5h 20m	74%	59%
American Details →	XNA 14:28 → PHX 15:21AA 3233	54m Phoenix	PHX 16:15 → PHL 23:56AA 3163	8h 28m	71%	53%
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	5h 23m	69%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON