tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4033 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4033 American flown by Envoy Flight history → XNA 08:27 PHX 09:18 11% 3% 0.6% 93%
AA 3233 American Flight history → XNA 14:28 PHX 15:21 24% 6% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa 1h 19m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 6h 04m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → XNA 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5969 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Denver DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481 5h 10m 92% 82%
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:08 → PHL 09:59AA 1015 1h 06m Philadelphia PHL 11:05 → PHX 13:09AA 646 9h 01m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:45 → SLC 09:43DL 3796 · flown by SkyWest 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 6h 27m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3905 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 03m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520 6h 29m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → XNA 08:50 → DEN 10:01UA 1045 1h 24m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 5h 35m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → XNA 09:00 → IAH 11:00UA 5803 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Houston IAH 14:20 → PHX 15:10UA 1238 8h 10m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:12 → IAH 19:05UA 6290 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078 5h 30m 74% 57%
AmericanDetails → XNA 18:57 → DFW 20:29AA 3274 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → PHX 22:00AA 3239 5h 03m 75% 51%
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor 50m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842 6h 40m 56% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON