Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3796 at 07:45, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3796 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 07:45	SLC 09:43	6%	3%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5969 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SLC 09:37UA 497	4h 47m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3905 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 50m	96%	83%
United Details →	XNA 07:20 → ORD 09:30UA 5853 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	9h 02m	100%	82%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	1h 24m Houston	IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:59UA 756	6h 29m	94%	82%
United Details →	XNA 08:50 → DEN 10:01UA 1045	1h 39m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	5h 23m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 31m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	XNA 11:57 → ATL 14:50DL 4082 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 05m	99%	80%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Denver	DEN 16:29 → SLC 18:10UA 5261 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir	48m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	5h 53m	66%	53%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	7h 27m	69%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON