tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 771 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 771 Southwest ABQ 06:17 AUS 09:14 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 333 Southwest ABQ 17:02 AUS 19:59 17% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:34 → DEN 07:12UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026 6h 28m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 3h 36m Denver DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942 7h 24m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 53m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 6h 17m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:19 → ATL 16:20DL 1004 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491 6h 31m 91% 73%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 16:43 → DEN 18:13UA 725 2h 14m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 6h 01m 93% 73%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 05:38 → DFW 08:39AA 1231 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → AUS 12:02AA 1070 5h 24m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 12:16 → DFW 15:03AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:21 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 5h 06m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 11:47 → PHX 12:07AA 1352 3h 18m Phoenix PHX 15:25 → AUS 19:43AA 2892 6h 56m 92% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ABQ 17:30 → DFW 20:30AA 9 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972 4h 09m 68% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON