Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1647 at 06:47, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1647 Southwest	ABQ 06:47	BNA 10:48	4%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:22 → DEN 06:58WN 117	1h 24m Denver	DEN 08:22 → BNA 11:58WN 1544	5h 36m	99%	90%
United Details →	ABQ 05:34 → DEN 07:12UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Denver	DEN 09:42 → BNA 13:25UA 355	6h 51m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535	58m Minneapolis	MSP 13:02 → BNA 15:10DL 2101	5h 40m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	6h 03m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ABQ 11:19 → ATL 16:20DL 1004	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:20 → BNA 19:38DL 1490	7h 19m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	ABQ 13:39 → SEA 16:04DL 3911 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	9h 15m	100%	77%
United Details →	ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741	2h 27m Denver	DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300	6h 40m	98%	75%
JetBlue Details →	ABQ 00:01 → JFK 06:09B6 66	1h 56m New York	JFK 08:05 → BNA 09:36B6 273	8h 35m	88%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ABQ 17:30 → DFW 20:30AA 9	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:42 → BNA 23:44AA 1500	5h 14m	72%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON