tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4185 at 05:51, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4185 Southwest ABQ 05:51 BWI 11:35 3% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:22 → DEN 06:58WN 117 1h 39m Denver DEN 08:37 → BWI 14:05WN 1751 6h 43m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:34 → DEN 07:12UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 43m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799 6h 49m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:19 → ATL 16:20DL 1004 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928 6h 26m 97% 80%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:37 → HOU 09:46WN 127 3h 57m Houston HOU 13:43 → BWI 17:50WN 996 9h 13m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 1h 02m Houston IAH 18:27 → BWI 22:41UA 1830 6h 33m 84% 67%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 11:36 → ORD 15:37UA 1557 2h 33m Chicago ORD 18:10 → BWI 21:06UA 1557 7h 30m 92% 64%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 12:16 → DFW 15:03AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:20 → BWI 21:38AA 2251 7h 22m 96% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON