Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 117 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 117 ABQ 05:22 → DEN 06:58 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 123 ABQ 17:22 → DEN 18:53 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 117 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 05:22	DEN 06:58	2%	1%	0.6%	92%
UA 5988 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 05:34	DEN 07:12	4%	3%	0.6%	96%
OO 4727 SkyWest	ABQ 10:44	DEN 12:29	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 621 United Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	DEN 08:23	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 121 Southwest	ABQ 12:47	DEN 14:18	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5446 SkyWest	ABQ 18:06	DEN 19:40	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1741 United Flight history →	ABQ 13:33	DEN 15:03	13%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 725 United Flight history →	ABQ 16:43	DEN 18:13	22%	7%	0.6%	55%
WN 123 Southwest	ABQ 17:22	DEN 18:53	23%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON