Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1231 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1231 ABQ 05:38 → DFW 08:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 9 ABQ 17:30 → DFW 20:30 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1231 American Flight history →	ABQ 05:38	DFW 08:39	10%	5%	1.1%	88%
AA 99 American Flight history →	ABQ 07:04	DFW 10:00	14%	6%	1.1%	90%
AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 10:14	DFW 13:02	16%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 12:16	DFW 15:03	16%	6%	0.9%	84%
AA 999 American Flight history →	ABQ 08:21	DFW 11:14	16%	6%	1.1%	84%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 14:23	DFW 17:13	22%	8%	1.1%	77%
AA 9 American Flight history →	ABQ 17:30	DFW 20:30	36%	24%	15.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON