Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 413 at 06:03, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 413 United	ABQ 06:03	IAD 11:49	6%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ABQ 05:34 → DEN 07:12UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Denver	DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087	8h 19m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	8h 14m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ABQ 11:19 → ATL 16:20DL 1004	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	7h 04m	98%	81%
United Details →	ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741	2h 57m Denver	DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408	7h 59m	99%	80%
United Details →	ABQ 07:10 → SFO 09:07UA 5286 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m San Francisco	SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336	10h 01m	98%	79%
United Details →	ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa	2h 45m Houston	IAH 20:10 → IAD 00:02 +1UA 1968	7h 54m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ABQ 16:10 → ATL 21:21DL 1109	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 31m	94%	75%
American Details →	ABQ 05:38 → DFW 08:39AA 1231	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:17 → IAD 14:26AA 524	6h 48m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON