Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4115 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 4115 ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2088 ABQ 13:52 → LAX 15:07 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4115 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	LAX 07:09	5%	2%	0.5%	95%
AA 6444 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 07:07	LAX 08:17	11%	3%	0.6%	97%
OO 3814 SkyWest	ABQ 11:59	LAX 13:06	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4550 SkyWest	ABQ 18:35	LAX 19:43	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4897 SkyWest	ABQ 12:40	LAX 13:46	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2088 Southwest	ABQ 13:52	LAX 15:07	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON