Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1851 at 06:57, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1851 Southwest	ABQ 06:57	MDW 10:50	4%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	7h 30m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 06:37 → HOU 09:46WN 127	3h 39m Houston	HOU 13:25 → MDW 15:47WN 1179	8h 10m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 13:52 → LAS 14:39WN 138	3h 17m Las Vegas	LAS 17:56 → MDW 23:30WN 4363	8h 38m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON