Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 535 at 08:30, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 535 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 08:30	MSP 12:04	5%	2%	0.4%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ABQ 05:34 → DEN 07:12UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 06m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	5h 45m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	8h 07m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest	56m Los Angeles	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	6h 42m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	ABQ 16:10 → ATL 21:21DL 1109	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 29m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	ABQ 11:19 → ATL 16:20DL 1004	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654	8h 27m	99%	81%
United Details →	ABQ 16:43 → DEN 18:13UA 725	2h 41m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	6h 16m	97%	81%
United Details →	ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741	2h 52m Denver	DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076	6h 27m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ABQ 17:30 → DFW 20:30AA 9	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	5h 27m	64%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON