Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2090 at 16:30, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2090 Southwest	ABQ 16:30	OAK 17:57	14%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:22 → DEN 06:58WN 117	1h 54m Denver	DEN 08:52 → OAK 10:39WN 1697	6h 17m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	ABQ 18:04 → SLC 19:54DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:40 → OAK 21:38DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	4h 34m	87%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON