Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1846 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1846 ABQ 07:44 → ORD 11:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2068 ABQ 13:44 → ORD 17:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1846 United	ABQ 07:44	ORD 11:42	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2174 American	ABQ 06:00	ORD 09:58	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1557 United Flight history →	ABQ 11:36	ORD 15:37	21%	7%	0.7%	63%
AA 2068 American	ABQ 13:44	ORD 17:46	30%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON