tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 426 at 14:53, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 426 Alaska ABQ 14:53 PDX 16:48 20% 3% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:22 → DEN 06:58WN 117 1h 54m Denver DEN 08:52 → PDX 10:46WN 3459 6h 24m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 3h 54m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 10h 05m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 5h 15m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:34 → DEN 07:12UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 53m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 5h 13m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:04 → SLC 19:54DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373 5h 34m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644 6h 58m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 7h 20m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:10 → SFO 09:07UA 5286 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m San Francisco SFO 12:39 → PDX 14:34UA 2851 8h 24m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON