Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4442 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4442 ABQ 06:27 → PHX 06:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1352 ABQ 11:47 → PHX 12:07 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4442 Southwest	ABQ 06:27	PHX 06:58	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2047 Southwest	ABQ 09:37	PHX 10:08	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2760 American	ABQ 06:10	PHX 06:34	8%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 385 Southwest	ABQ 13:12	PHX 13:43	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3879 Envoy	ABQ 15:14	PHX 15:39	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 442 Southwest	ABQ 15:27	PHX 15:58	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	ABQ 11:47	PHX 12:07	16%	6%	0.8%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON