tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 636 at 09:48, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 636 Southwest ABQ 09:48 SAN 10:42 9% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 13m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:04 → SLC 19:54DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 21:15 → SAN 22:15DL 1202 5h 11m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 08:20 → SAN 09:22DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 4h 22m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 52m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 41m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:10 → SFO 09:07UA 5286 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 7h 58m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 30m Houston IAH 19:55 → SAN 21:32UA 1911 8h 24m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon 1h 26m Portland PDX 15:01 → SAN 17:35AS 1320 7h 01m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 11:47 → PHX 12:07AA 1352 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 14:10 → SAN 15:31AA 1951 4h 44m 92% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ABQ 11:36 → ORD 15:37UA 1557 47m Chicago ORD 16:24 → SAN 18:48UA 2138 8h 12m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON