Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5286 at 07:10, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5286 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 07:10	SFO 09:07	16%	7%	0.5%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SFO 16:25DL 756	8h 55m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ABQ 18:04 → SLC 19:54DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:18 → SFO 23:20DL 1091	6h 16m	100%	80%
United Details →	ABQ 16:43 → DEN 18:13UA 725	2h 57m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	7h 13m	98%	77%
American Details →	ABQ 07:07 → LAX 08:17AA 6444 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 09:52 → SFO 11:36AA 6277 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	1h 14m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	6h 06m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	5h 12m	97%	76%
United Details →	ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621	2h 57m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 04m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	ABQ 13:39 → SEA 16:04DL 3911 · flown by SkyWest	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	7h 37m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ABQ 17:30 → DFW 20:30AA 9	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:48 → SFO 23:33AA 2522	7h 03m	75%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON