Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1151 at 15:32, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1151 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 15:32	BOS 16:25	26%	14%	1.1%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	ACK 10:52 → DCA 12:29B6 2493	1h 47m Washington	DCA 14:16 → BOS 15:51B6 1254	4h 59m	94%	68%
United Details →	ACK 15:44 → EWR 17:30UA 4494 · flown by GoJet	3h 44m Newark	EWR 21:14 → BOS 22:20UA 1117	6h 36m	92%	58%
JetBlue Details →	ACK 12:03 → JFK 13:09B6 92	1h 57m New York	JFK 15:06 → BOS 16:19B6 1118	4h 16m	90%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON