Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5966 at 12:30, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5966 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 12:30	DEN 16:22	20%	10%	2.4%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Arcata/Eureka). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 16:06 → SFO 17:52UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	7h 41m	97%	80%
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 39m	96%	74%
United Details →	ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:07UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m San Francisco	SFO 08:48 → DEN 12:21UA 1469	5h 21m	94%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 16:32 → DEN 20:09UA 1835	5h 04m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON