tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 4633 at 13:26, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 4633 SkyWest ACV 13:26 LAX 15:27 16% 7% 2.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:07UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m San Francisco SFO 08:58 → LAX 10:35UA 1457 4h 35m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → ACV 16:06 → SFO 17:52UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m San Francisco SFO 21:27 → LAX 22:49UA 1079 6h 43m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Denver DEN 17:44 → LAX 19:16UA 1753 6h 46m 86% 65%
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 18:31 → LAX 19:53UA 1799 5h 48m 95% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 55m San Francisco SFO 16:17 → LAX 17:51UA 1754 3h 46m 52% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON