Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4774 at 11:50, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4774 Southwest	ALB 11:50	BNA 13:28	9%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ALB 05:36 → BWI 07:04WN 167	1h 11m Baltimore	BWI 08:15 → BNA 09:25WN 4738	4h 49m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	ALB 06:05 → DTW 07:41DL 2996	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 08:44 → BNA 09:25DL 2682	4h 20m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ALB 06:26 → ATL 08:57DL 2429	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 04m	97%	85%
United Details →	ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47UA 2225	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414	7h 19m	98%	81%
American Details →	ALB 05:14 → DCA 06:59AA 5433 · flown by PSA	1h 05m Washington	DCA 08:04 → BNA 09:17AA 5085 · flown by PSA	5h 03m	92%	80%
American Details →	ALB 06:55 → CLT 09:05AA 440	1h 35m Charlotte	CLT 10:40 → BNA 11:09AA 1295	5h 14m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	ALB 14:29 → ATL 17:02DL 1137	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → BNA 20:34DL 3002	7h 05m	99%	78%
American Details →	ALB 10:49 → PHL 12:09AA 6026 · flown by Piedmont	3h 46m Philadelphia	PHL 15:55 → BNA 17:05AA 1280	7h 16m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ALB 14:50 → IAD 16:29UA 4942 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264	4h 57m	74%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON