Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 167 ALB 05:36 → BWI 07:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 173 ALB 15:50 → BWI 17:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 167 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 05:36	BWI 07:04	3%	1%	1.2%	100%
WN 648 Southwest	ALB 09:13	BWI 10:39	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 397 Southwest	ALB 07:10	BWI 08:45	4%	2%	1.4%	no record
WN 1450 Southwest	ALB 12:50	BWI 14:20	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 173 Southwest	ALB 15:50	BWI 17:20	12%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON