tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via National, leaving 05:14, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ALB 05:14 → DCA 06:59AA 5433 · flown by PSA 3h 02m Washington DCA 10:01 → DFW 12:20AA 795 8h 06m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ALB 05:45 → LGA 06:47DL 5454 · flown by Endeavor 1h 43m New York LGA 08:30 → DFW 11:15DL 873 6h 30m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ALB 06:21 → PHL 07:40AA 5854 · flown by Piedmont 3h 08m Philadelphia PHL 10:48 → DFW 13:22AA 3326 8h 01m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → ALB 06:26 → ATL 08:57DL 2429 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414 7h 11m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47UA 2225 2h 42m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:13UA 441 8h 03m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ALB 08:00 → DEN 10:11UA 2750 3h 44m Denver DEN 13:55 → DFW 17:01UA 578 10h 01m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → ALB 08:00 → PHL 09:21AA 5901 · flown by Piedmont 3h 31m Philadelphia PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415 8h 31m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → ALB 06:55 → CLT 09:05AA 440 2h 12m Charlotte CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747 7h 07m 93% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ALB 10:00 → IAD 11:37UA 4889 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 03m Dulles IAD 12:40 → DFW 15:04UA 1564 6h 04m 75% 64%
UnitedDetails → ALB 17:11 → ORD 18:37UA 538 1h 13m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 6h 25m 72% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON