Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4775 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4775 ALB 06:20 → MCO 09:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4103 ALB 17:25 → MCO 20:36 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4775 Southwest	ALB 06:20	MCO 09:23	8%	2%	4.0%	no record
B6 2920 JetBlue Flight history →	ALB 08:44	MCO 11:50	14%	6%	5.5%	85%
WN 4103 Southwest	ALB 17:25	MCO 20:36	22%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON