Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2225 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2225 ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 538 ALB 17:11 → ORD 18:37 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2225 United Flight history →	ALB 06:10	ORD 07:47	15%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 1215 United	ALB 09:46	ORD 11:21	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 07:14	ORD 08:38	20%	5%	1.0%	89%
OO 6233 SkyWest	ALB 11:51	ORD 13:29	22%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 18:41	ORD 20:12	24%	7%	0.9%	79%
UA 463 United	ALB 12:25	ORD 13:51	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 538 United Flight history →	ALB 17:11	ORD 18:37	33%	9%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON