Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5844 ALB 08:03 → PHL 09:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5804 ALB 17:31 → PHL 18:57 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5844 Piedmont	ALB 08:03	PHL 09:30	14%	4%	1.5%	no record
PT 6038 Piedmont	ALB 10:53	PHL 12:18	17%	4%	1.5%	no record
PT 5904 Piedmont	ALB 14:55	PHL 16:23	17%	5%	1.6%	no record
PT 5804 Piedmont	ALB 17:31	PHL 18:57	21%	7%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON