Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:16, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AMA 05:16 → DFW 06:26AA 4257 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:46 → AUS 09:54AA 794	4h 38m	99%	78%
United Details →	AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 28m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	6h 29m	99%	77%
United Details →	AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Denver	DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026	5h 02m	88%	76%
American Details →	AMA 07:23 → DFW 08:39AA 4258 · flown by Envoy	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → AUS 12:02AA 1070	4h 39m	100%	75%
United Details →	AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 08m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	6h 07m	97%	74%
American Details →	AMA 10:25 → DFW 11:39AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:38 → AUS 15:50AA 2103	5h 25m	98%	65%
American Details →	AMA 16:25 → DFW 17:41AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:51 → AUS 22:04AA 576	5h 39m	97%	53%
American Details →	AMA 15:02 → DFW 16:20AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:11 → AUS 19:18AA 1588	4h 16m	88%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AMA 15:02 → DFW 16:20AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:21 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	3h 20m	74%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON