tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5221 at 08:00, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5221 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → AMA 08:00 DEN 08:41 12% 4% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:04 → IAH 10:56UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 37m Houston IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 6h 13m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:24 → IAH 17:17UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 53m Houston IAH 20:10 → DEN 21:29UA 685 7h 05m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → AMA 05:16 → DFW 06:26AA 4257 · flown by Envoy 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → DEN 09:28AA 1756 5h 12m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:23 → DFW 08:39AA 4258 · flown by Envoy 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:48AA 2359 5h 25m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:25 → DFW 11:39AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:17 → DEN 14:21AA 420 4h 56m 95% 59%
AmericanDetails → AMA 16:25 → DFW 17:41AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:21 → DEN 22:40AA 577 7h 15m 97% 46%
AmericanDetails → AMA 15:02 → DFW 16:20AA 3383 · flown by Envoy 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235 5h 39m 87% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AMA 16:25 → DFW 17:41AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235 4h 16m 64% 32%
AmericanDetails → AMA 19:07 → DFW 20:30AA 3789 · flown by Envoy 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:21 → DEN 22:40AA 577 4h 33m 58% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON