Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4257 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4257 AMA 05:16 → DFW 06:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3383 AMA 15:02 → DFW 16:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4257 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 05:16	DFW 06:26	7%	4%	1.4%	94%
AA 4258 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 07:23	DFW 08:39	9%	4%	1.4%	89%
AA 3198 American	AMA 05:58	DFW 07:28	12%	6%	2.3%	no record
AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 10:25	DFW 11:39	13%	5%	1.4%	90%
MQ 3337 Envoy	AMA 12:46	DFW 13:58	20%	6%	2.0%	no record
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 16:25	DFW 17:41	27%	12%	5.3%	68%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 19:07	DFW 20:30	28%	18%	11.1%	70%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 15:02	DFW 16:20	28%	11%	2.6%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON