Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4224 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	AMA 09:00	IAH 10:52	9%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 4816 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	AMA 15:18	IAH 17:10	15%	8%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AMA 07:23 → DFW 08:39AA 4258 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → IAH 11:39AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	4h 16m	100%	83%
United Details →	AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Denver	DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599	7h 09m	96%	80%
American Details →	AMA 05:16 → DFW 06:26AA 4257 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:20 → IAH 09:33AA 1407	4h 17m	98%	70%
American Details →	AMA 10:25 → DFW 11:39AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → IAH 15:50AA 9748	5h 25m	98%	62%
American Details →	AMA 15:02 → DFW 16:20AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	4h 52m	88%	50%
American Details →	AMA 16:25 → DFW 17:41AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209	5h 59m	97%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AMA 16:25 → DFW 17:41AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	3h 29m	71%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON