Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 188 at 11:11, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 188 Southwest	AMA 11:11	LAS 11:39	9%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 28m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 37m	99%	79%
United Details →	AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 24m	96%	79%
American Details →	AMA 05:16 → DFW 06:26AA 4257 · flown by Envoy	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:52 → LAS 09:50AA 1550	6h 34m	100%	73%
United Details →	AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 55m Houston	IAH 20:05 → LAS 21:23UA 1360	8h 05m	97%	72%
American Details →	AMA 07:23 → DFW 08:39AA 4258 · flown by Envoy	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → LAS 11:39AA 1482	6h 16m	100%	67%
American Details →	AMA 10:25 → DFW 11:39AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28AA 2376	6h 03m	96%	56%
American Details →	AMA 15:02 → DFW 16:20AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771	7h 09m	93%	46%
American Details →	AMA 16:25 → DFW 17:41AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:27 → LAS 22:18AA 2371	7h 53m	97%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AMA 19:07 → DFW 20:30AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:27 → LAS 22:18AA 2371	5h 11m	67%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON