Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 416 Delta Flight history →	ANC 20:10	ATL 07:02	31%	5%	0.7%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:06DL 1036	11h 06m	98%	83%
United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:23UA 1959	2h 54m Denver	DEN 10:17 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	11h 20m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:48 → PDX 06:24AS 593	1h 06m Portland	PDX 07:30 → ATL 15:15AS 784	9h 27m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:48 → SEA 07:14DL 925	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 08:52 → ATL 16:50DL 560	10h 02m	93%	76%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 09:05 → ATL 16:57AS 334	11h 00m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON