Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 02:48, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1959 United Flight history →	ANC 00:03	DEN 07:04	9%	3%	0.8%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → DEN 19:27DL 2931	11h 27m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:48 → SEA 07:14DL 925	56m Seattle	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	7h 14m	84%	71%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	7h 32m	91%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:12AS 48	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 13:13 → DEN 16:43AS 639	7h 45m	97%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON