Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 06:58, is the safest bet: 53% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 399 American Flight history →	ANC 20:06	DFW 05:11	30%	8%	0.9%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:23UA 1959	2h 14m Denver	DEN 09:37 → DFW 12:40UA 1350	9h 37m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 08:38 → DFW 14:28AS 321	9h 31m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:48 → SEA 07:14DL 925	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 09:15 → DFW 15:13DL 803	9h 25m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:12AS 48	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → DFW 18:21AS 549	8h 23m	81%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON