Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 00:03, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:24UA 1959	2h 11m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:26UA 1915	10h 23m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 16:09 → DTW 18:54DL 1476	8h 54m	97%	84%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:34 → SEA 06:56AS 98	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 09:18 → DTW 16:33AS 313	9h 59m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON