Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:48, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:48 → PDX 06:24AS 593	1h 16m Portland	PDX 07:40 → EWR 16:05AS 294	10h 17m	98%	83%
United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:23UA 1959	2h 40m Denver	DEN 10:03 → EWR 15:59UA 2381	11h 56m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 56m Seattle	SEA 08:24 → EWR 16:03AS 295	10h 06m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON