Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 50 at 16:13, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 50 Alaska	ANC 16:13	HNL 20:56	23%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 2 h behind Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 02:49 → SEA 07:15DL 925	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34DL 351	10h 45m	90%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:11AS 48	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 13:43 → HNL 16:38AS 825	11h 40m	98%	58%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:34 → SEA 06:56AS 98	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 10:05 → HNL 12:48AS 626	12h 14m	100%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON