Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	12h 38m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 09:27 → JFK 17:12AS 26	11h 15m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 02m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	10h 23m	87%	65%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:12AS 48	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:57 → JFK 21:40AS 34	10h 42m	99%	62%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor	12h 09m	98%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON