Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:48, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:48 → PDX 06:24AS 593	2h 37m Portland	PDX 09:01 → LAS 11:12AS 1337	8h 24m	99%	86%
United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:23UA 1959	3h 59m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	11h 21m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 07:48 → LAS 10:29AS 612	7h 32m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:48 → SEA 07:14DL 925	2h 36m Seattle	SEA 09:50 → LAS 12:25DL 2905	8h 37m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949	7h 58m	95%	68%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:12AS 48	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 13:52 → LAS 16:14AS 1481	8h 16m	99%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON