Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 02:34, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 44 Alaska	ANC 23:19	LAX 05:28	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → LAX 20:05DL 2122	13h 05m	98%	83%
United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:24UA 1959	2h 38m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	10h 31m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:49 → SEA 07:15DL 925	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769	9h 06m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:34 → SEA 19:04DL 922	2h 26m Seattle	SEA 21:30 → LAX 00:06 +1DL 2512	8h 32m	96%	69%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:34 → SEA 06:56AS 98	1h 22m Seattle	SEA 08:18 → LAX 10:51AS 1306	7h 17m	93%	68%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:11AS 48	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 14:13 → LAX 16:47AS 696	8h 49m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON