Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 447 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	MSP 14:18	11%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 377 Delta Flight history →	ANC 22:10	MSP 06:25	17%	5%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:23UA 1959	2h 17m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	9h 37m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	9h 00m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON