Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 00:03, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 450 United Flight history →	ANC 20:00	ORD 05:18	18%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 375 American Flight history →	ANC 21:56	ORD 07:16	30%	5%	0.9%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:23UA 1959	2h 12m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	10h 12m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265	9h 49m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → ORD 17:26DL 1306	8h 26m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON