Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 593 ANC 01:48 → PDX 06:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 1489 ANC 11:54 → PDX 16:18 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 593 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:48	PDX 06:24	7%	2%	0.8%	93%
AS 1538 Alaska	ANC 09:07	PDX 13:47	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1489 Alaska	ANC 11:54	PDX 16:18	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 2398 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ANC 05:00	PDX 09:45	14%	10%	3.8%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON