Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 02:48, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 302 Alaska	ANC 00:18	PHX 06:41	13%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:48 → PDX 06:24AS 593	2h 39m Portland	PDX 09:03 → PHX 11:39AS 1350	8h 51m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:48 → SEA 07:14DL 925	1h 11m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419	7h 32m	90%	77%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	3h 07m Seattle	SEA 09:35 → PHX 12:19AS 449	9h 22m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447	8h 21m	94%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:12AS 48	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	8h 47m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:12AS 48	46m Seattle	SEA 11:58 → PHX 14:43AS 417	6h 45m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON